Going in temporal and priority order (start with the “nows” from the highest score to the lowest, then the “next”, etc) take all your raw material and turn them into risk statements. I like the model of “In doing x, there is a risk that y, which could result in z, affecting zz”. We typically focus on “y”, which is fine, but attempting to understand “x” and “z”/“zz” can give you more options.

• “x” gives you an understanding of what is often called the initiating event or catalyst for the untoward event.
• “y” is the event itself
• “z” is the result or effect, and
• “zz” is like an optional extra in case you don’t get a clear picture from “z”.

In “x”, there is a risk that “y” which could result in “z” affecting “zz”.

In taking Rex for a walk, there is a risk that Rex will make me trip and fall which could result in an injury affecting my ability to do anything that requires walking.

I can look at this statement and check myself. Isn’t there always a chance that I’ll trip and fall? Oh, I see, it’s about Rex being underfoot when we’re outside. Which he does, all the time.

 

Understand cause / catalyst / initiating action

When I apply this pattern to “In taking Rex for a walk there is a risk that we’ll be hit by a asteroid” gives me pause for a second view. I’d actually be exposed to this potential event irrespective of whether I took Rex for a walk or not. So this means I can broaden the statement to “Irrespective of what I am doing, there is a risk that we’ll be hit by an asteroid.”

Using the pattern in this way, allows you to “de-scope” a bunch of items. If your actions have no impact on whether an action will or will not happen, there is very little you can to do manage the likelihood, only the fall-out.

 

Understand effect

Applying this pattern also ensures that we look at the effect of such an action. A lot of folks focus on this and see it as the risk, which it is not. This might seem pedantic, but to be able to effectively manage risk, means understanding the difference between understanding cause, event and effect, not just effect.

 

Review your estimates

Seriously, they weren’t cast in stone. You know a bit more now, check your estimates, are all your unlikelys less likely than your likelys? Are all your materials a bigger potential pain in the ass than your immaterials?

But again, they’re estimates, don’t try to get it perfect!